USA Coronavirus Path
The Novel Corona Virus, also known as Covid-19, has hit the world by storm, moving fairly quickly around the world. The virus started in Wuhan China and spread slowly at first to South East Asia and then to Europe. The virus is now hitting the US hard, but how did it get there and where will we end up?
What is Corona Virus?
Corona Virus is actually a collection of similar viruses, some strains of the virus simply give you a mild cold, while others like SARS and MERS, have more deadly symptoms. Covid-19 is the most recent strain of the coronavirus discovered in late 2019 which is named for the first two letters of corona, virus, the first letter of disease and the last two numbers of the year it was discovered, 2019.
Coronaviruses are transmitted between animals and people, SARS started from cats, Mens from camels, and Covid-19 may have come from bats or seafood, the original source has not yet been confirmed. There are also some strains of coronavirus that known to be spread by animals but have not infected humans to date. The reason these viruses are called corona is from their distinct look under a microscope. The coronavirus has spiked rings that look like a crown, which in Latin means corona.
Symptoms of Covid-19 can begin from 2 days up until 2 weeks after being infected, which is why people that have come into contact with someone known to be infected must be in quarantine for two weeks in order to be sure they have not contracted the virus. Symptoms of Covid-19 are fever, a dry cough, and shortness of breath. In more severe cases, the respiratory symptoms of the virus can include pneumonia and kidney failure.
While the symptoms of Covid-19 are similar to the regular flu, the reason for the worldwide panic and danger is because of the rate it spreads. It is far more contagious than the regular flu, and to date, there is no vaccine for the virus. The coronavirus is more dangerous for people that have compromised immune systems and people with a history of respiratory disease as well as the elderly.
According to World Health Organisation experts, the current mortality rate for Covid-19 is 3%, but they believe that many people have mild symptoms or no symptoms at all and are never tested for the virus and therefore the actual number may be much less.
The mortality rate for people under the age of the 30 is also far lower than 3% with current estimates showing that people aged 0-9 have a 0% death rate, ages 10-39 have a .2% death rate, ages 40-49 have a .4% mortality rate, ages 50-59 have a 1.3% death rate, ages 60-69 a 3.6% rate, ages 70-79 an 8% rate and people over the age of 80 have the highest mortality rate of 14.8%.
How did the Corona Virus Start?
There are many conspiracy theories about how Covid-19 began, some say it was released on purpose as a biological weapon, others believe that it was mistaken released in a biological lab. While nobody is sure exactly where it began, most researchers have shown that it came from nature and began in the province of Wuhan, China which has a population of over 11 million people.
Each sick person will go on to infect, on average, between 1.4 and 2.5 more people and therefore the large population in the area of Wuhan helped the virus spread faster and made it harder to isolate the outbreak. The virus is spread between people in close contact with each other and can be spread through coughs and sneezes.
The saliva and mucus that comes from a cough or a sneeze can also land on a surface, plastic and stainless steel can keep the virus alive on that surface for a few days while cardboard can only sustain the virus for a day. This is how the virus can spread very quickly and the only way to stop it is by cleaning surfaces often, avoiding contact with surfaces outdoors used by the public and also coughing and sneezing into a tissue.
After reaching Europe, Covid-19 reached the US in January 2020, the virus may have been active beforehand, but CDC originally did not allow testing for the virus unless the sick person had been in a country with the ongoing spread of the virus or who had been in contact with someone with a confirmed case of the disease.
This regulation delayed the diagnosing of patients with the virus and may have contributed to the spread of the disease in the US. That regulation has since been updated to allow doctors to use their own judgment.
The US Secretary of Health declared a public health emergency in response to the coronavirus at the end of January, and President Trump declared a federal emergency in March. There are currently a number of hotspots for the virus including New York, Boston, Washington, and New Rochelle. There is still a shortage of coronavirus tests available in the US which may hinder the efforts to stop the virus in the US.
Where is The Corona Virus Going?
There is no way to determine how long the virus will last or what will happen, but it is possible to make educated assumptions. Although a number of different countries and labs are working on developing a vaccine. It usually takes years to release a vaccine due to medical regulations. The process is being expedited, but it maybe 6 months before a vaccine is approved. Once a vaccine is approved it will also take a while to produce the vaccine.
With no end in sight to the pandemic, the CDC created four different possible scenarios of where the US will end up. They estimate that between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States will end up infected by the virus, and as many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die. They also estimate between 2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States who could require hospitalization. The US currently only has about 925,000 staffed hospital beds, which can potentially crash the nation’s medical system, and deny treatment of other patients aside from Covid-19 infections.
Governments in the US have already begun to introduce measures to limit social contact by closing down schools, restaurants, and theatres. In other countries such as Italy where the virus has hit harder, everything is shut down except for pharmacies and supermarkets and nobody is allowed out of their house unless they have a reason to be.
This is a very real possibility in the US if the virus continues to spread. The worst effects of the virus, however, can be mitigated by the citizens of the US. If there is less contact between people, and a high standard of cleanliness is kept by everyone, the virus will be slowed and perhaps stopped.